The COP (or The United Nations Climate Conference) is a yearly gathering of all nations to agree on solutions that address the climate crisis, such as limiting the rise of global temperature to 1.5°C, assisting vulnerable countries affected by climate change impact, and reaching net zero emissions by 2050. This year’s conference is held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, from November 20 to December 12, 2023, with the participation of close to 200 countries, business leaders, climate scientists, international organizations, Indigenous Peoples, journalists, and experts in the field. COP28 is the 28th year of the climate conference (UNFCCC, n.d.) 

In last year’s COP27, the possibility of a 2.4 temperature in the next few years despite new plans submitted by countries to reduce emissions by 2030 has been a cause of concern for the parties (BBC, 2023). Therefore, the emphasis in the previous year was on executing plans rather than setting targets. Several initiatives were established during COP27. Before delving into the critical highlights of COP28, let us assess what has been accomplished since the previous climate conference:

Mitigation Work Programme: This programme was created to expedite both the ambition and implementation of mitigation efforts for climate change. The agreement included the execution of policies and measures with a global perspective, incorporating both overarching considerations and country-specific experiences and the operationalization of two global dialogues, along with other discussions and events with a focus on investment.

Achievements:

• After its creation, there have been submissions of views on opportunities, best practices, and actionable solutions relevant to the topic of mitigation strategies by parties, observers, and other non-party stakeholders.

• Two global dialogues took place in June and October, focusing on accelerating just energy. Discussions were on energy efficiency, carbon capture utilization and storage, and shifting to collective and non-motorized modes of transport, among others.

• Although resolutions have been proposed coming from these submissions and dialogues, we have yet to see the actualization of these solutions in concerned nations.

Sharm el-Sheikh Implementation Plan: The plan intends to redirect the broader financial flows towards low-emissions and climate-resilient initiatives. This global transformation to a low-carbon economy will require investments of up to $4-6 trillion a year (UNCTAD, 2023). This also entailed a commitment by developed nations to give grants to developing nations to aid their recovery from the damage and economic losses from the effects of climate change. The Loss and Damage fund was formed in support of the plan.

Loss and Damage Fund: This fund serves as a financial pot that vulnerable nations can use in their recovery efforts from the impacts of climate change. The recommendations on the operationalization of funding agreements and funds for consideration should be disclosed at COP28.

Achievements:

• In COP28, the Loss and Damage Fund was a priority on this year’s agenda, with significant pledges that have been made to the loss and damage fund, which will be tackled later in the article. However, the committed investments are still far from the required investment of $4-6 trillion a year.

Task Force on Net-Zero Regulations: To ensure that commitments by non-state actors are aligned with net zero emissions, the idea of a task force floated in COP27 with a focus on promoting transparency and accountability that conforms with coherent policies and is reinforced with regulatory certainty.

Achievements:

• The High-level Expert Group (HLEG)  has submitted their recommendations to fulfill net zero commitments by non-state actors genuinely in COP27, and it is only a year after that the task force was formalized at a high-level meeting with non-state actors.

• There have been voluntary initiatives by companies in line with the proposed recommendations, but there is a need for urgency in mandating these requirements among non-state actors as time runs out (Principle for Responsible Investment, 2023).

Food and Agriculture for Sustainable Transformation Initiative (Fast): Launched by the Egyptian presidency and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, this multi-stakeholder partnership seeks to facilitate and fast-track the transformation of agriculture and food systems by 2030, prioritizing the well-being of people, climate, and nature. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization was designated to manage this initiative with the objective of enhancing the quality, quantity, and accessibility of climate finance to support sustainable agricultural transformations across various levels, regions, and sectors.

Achievements:

• To date, Germany has pledged financial support for the FAST partnership in June, while the initiative was presented in a couple of Global forums to encourage participation. With the inception meeting of the FAST partnership commencing in COP28 and the workplan for members to be defined in 2024, the actions taken have been slow in progression, given the global apprehension towards food security

Forest and Climate Leaders’ Partnership (FLCP): The collaboration is built upon the objective of mitigating forest loss and land degradation by 2030 while fostering sustainable development and advancing an inclusive rural transformation (Forest Climate Leaders, n.d.). They aim to provide a solutions-based forum where nations congregate to monitor the implementation progress of forest preservation and provide support for scaling implementation by sharing strategic resolutions.

Achievements:

• A year after the launch of FLCP, the partnership has received several financial instruments and sustainable economic incentives, which have been channelled to different forest protection programs in Latin America, Africa, and Asia.

• 15 governments have also recognized the potential of Forest Carbon Markets in accelerating payments for climate and environmental services through launching a roadmap to scale investment in forest carbon credits (Forest Climate Leaders, 2023).

• However, it appears that our focus is primarily on financial contributions for each program rather than on the tangible progress and specific results from the forest program, which are indicative of the true measure of success.

Although the programs initiated during COP27 have not yielded tangible results, COP28 presents another opportunity to launch additional programs, potentially spreading our efforts too thin in addressing climate change mitigation.

Climate scientists and activists have viewed this year’s conference as crucial for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels because of last summer’s record-breaking heat. Currently, the global temperature has increased by about 1.2 degrees, and we have been warned that 1.5 degrees is the threshold before catastrophic events occur. In 2015, countries committed to meeting the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C and cutting down emissions by at least 45% vs. 2010 levels by 2030, which is also known as the 2015 Paris Agreement. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), as mentioned in a previous post, tackle action plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and resilience measures to adapt to the impacts of climate change, which are submitted by each country and modified along the way to reflect a higher degree of ambition compared to the previous version. COP28 included the first global stocktake or a report card of all the commitments that have been implemented and identified collective solutions to help achieve climate goals. The latest report from the UN’s International Panel on Climate Change reveals that greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced by 43% by 2030, compared to 2019 levels so countries may have to speed up the path on closing gaps to 2030. The illustration below displays how far off the current policies and pledges and targets to the required Global GHG emissions by 2030:

COP28’s main themes this year are (1) Financing Climate Change Impacts, (2) Clean Energy Transition, (3) Decarbonization of Oil and Gas, and (4) Centering on Health, Agriculture, and Biodiversity Conservation. World leaders joined by civil society, business, indigenous peoples, and international organizations have participated in fruitful discussions that resulted in several pledges and targets by countries, organizations, and companies. Let’s go over the agreements that have been made so far:

Climate Financing for Vulnerable Countries

Developing countries are usually the most susceptible to the impacts of climate change. Despite their least contribution to climate change, they are exposed to floods, heatwaves, drought, and rising sea levels brought about by climate change which have major consequences on their economies. 75% of global greenhouse emissions are generated by G20 countries, but developing nations such as Pakistan are on the receiving end of climate change with $30 billion worth of damages from severe flooding despite its less than 1% emission contribution (UN Environment Programme, 2022). The discussion on the Loss and Damage fund commenced productively in COP28. In this year’s conference, developed countries such as Germany, the EU, Britain, Japan, and the US have pledged financial assistance for the loss and damage fund. A total of $725 million has been pledged to date towards the fund, with $100 million from Germany, $245.39 million from the EU, at least $1 million from Britain, $17.5 million from the US and $10 million from Japan (Reuters, 2023).

The UAE also committed $200 million to the Resilience and Sustainability Trust of the IMF to support the development of low to middle-income economies in building resilience to the effects of climate change and sustainable growth (COP28, n.d.). Additionally, $5 Billion worth of funding to fast-track climate transition in emerging economies has been announced in a forum with at least 850 businesses and philanthropic organizations (COP28, n.d.).

The UAE Declaration on a Global Climate Finance Framework has also been revealed during COP28, which seeks to make financing accessible and affordable (McKinsey, 2023). In a panel discussion for “Mobilizing Investments for Climate-resiliency,” Botswana Minister of Finance Hon. Peggy O. Serame asserted that these financial instruments should be apportioned towards transition infrastructure, technical expertise, and research and innovation to support the development of solutions for climate change adaptation among developing nations. In addition, the World Bank also plans to increase total lending to 45% for climate-related projects by 2025 which will help developing nations further in preparing for adaptation and resilience to climate change (Reuters, 2023).

Clean Energy Transition

Renewable energy has been growing exponentially around the world, but it is not enough to stop the rise of coal- and gas-burning generation with the increasing global demand for electricity that renewable energy cannot fully supply (The New York Times, 2023). To help accelerate energy transition and reduce emissions, the Global Decarbonization Accelerator (GDA) has been launched by COP28 President Dr. Sultan Al Jaber as a comprehensive energy package in support of this challenge. The GDA aims to address three key issues: scaling a sustainable energy system, decarbonizing the current energy system, and reducing methane and other non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (Mace, 2023). In addition, the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge has garnered support from 119 nations. The objective is to increase global renewable generation threefold with a minimum capacity of 11,000 gigawatts and elevate the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements from approximately 2% to over 4% annually until 2030. 12 African Heads of State committed to rapidly scaling clean energy, promoting climate mitigation, and inspiring economic green growth in Africa through the Green Industrialization Initiative. The UK has recently set aside as well £140 million (or $175 million) to help develop clean energy in developing companies to ease the transition to net zero (Gov.UK, 2023).

Global utility providers and power companies have also congregated and formed The Utilities for Net Zero Alliance (UNEZA) with IRENA’s (International Renewable Energy Agency) World Energy Transitions Outlook as a guide for transition plans to 2030. The primary focus of this new framework is for global collaboration to expedite the adoption of renewables and the building of essential infrastructure. It also serves as a platform for cooperative endeavours to tackle supply chain bottlenecks and facilitate the flow of capital to drive the transformation of the power sector in the global south (IRENA, 2023). On top of that, Iberdola, a Spanish-based renewable energy provider, and Masdar, a UAE clean energy developer, have partnered to invest $16.2 billion in offshore wind and green hydrogen in countries including Germany, Britain and the US (Reuters, 2023).

COP 28 also saw a few new initiatives in clean energy. Another innovation that transpired was the launch of the Coal to Clean Credit Initiative, which is the use of carbon credits to finance the decommissioning of a coal power plant in the Philippines as a pilot project (Reuters, 2023). Another first is the Global Cooling Pledge which focuses on climate-warming emissions from cooling for refrigeration for food and medicine and air conditioning. Countries are expected to reduce cooling-related emission by 68% compared to 2022 levels by 2050 and are set to implement minimum energy performance standards by 2030 (Reuters, 2023).

Decarbonization of Oil and Gas Companies

In COP28, UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized that “The science is clear: The 1.5C limit is only possible if we ultimately stop burning all fossil fuels. Not reduce, not abate. Phase out, with a clear time frame” (The Guardian, 2023). The discussion on future plans for fossil fuels and whether to start phasing it out has been a point of contention. So far, more than 100 countries in Africa, Europe, the Pacific, Caribbean, including the US, are in support of phasing out of unabated fossil fuels. However, countries such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, and China have opposed the call. COP28 ended with a plea to transition away from oil, gas, and coal to reach net zero without explicitly advocating for the phase-out of fossil fuels.

In other news, the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter was initiated during the conference with 52    companies and 29 national oil companies supporting the target of reaching net zero emissions by 2050. 30 companies have also committed to near-zero methane emissions. The Oil and Gas Climate Initiative (OGCI) has also welcomed the charter, which they acknowledged as “an important milestone that will help align the broader oil and gas industry towards a net-zero future” (OGCI, 2023). OGCI is composed of the biggest oil enterprises Aramco, BP, Chevron, CNPC, Eni, Equinor, ExxonMobil, Occidental, Petrobras, Repsol, Shell, and Total Energies.

The US, China, and UAE assembled in a summit and called for countries to submit their 2035 NDCs with an economy-wide outlook and coverage of all greenhouse gases. Methane emissions and other non-carbon greenhouse gases have contributed to half of global warming but are not given priority for actionable plans. It not only contributes to global warming, but these greenhouse gases also lead to nearly 500,000 annual deaths due to respiratory illnesses and result in a 5-7% decline in crop yields. This occurs during a period of heightened global production strain (U.S. Department of State, 2023). Over $1.2 billion of grants have been declared to support the reduction of methane and other greenhouse gases across sectors in developing nations. 155 countries have also signed up to become members of the Global Methane Pledge, which is a voluntary partnership with a cause to cut methane emissions by 30% from 2020 levels by 2030. Canada, Egypt, and Brazil have announced new methane policies under the Pledge (European Commission, 2023).

Health, Agriculture, and Biodiversity Conservation

Without a doubt, climate change has also affected people’s health and well-being. Food security has been a concern as well as illnesses brought about by the effects of climate change. COP28 saw its first Health Day and UAE Declaration on Climate and Health which emphasizes on the health consequences of climate change. It underlines the necessity for governments to enhance healthcare systems to address the impacts related to climate change (World Economic Forum, 2023). A financial assistance of $700 million has been pledged to combat neglected tropical diseases, which are anticipated to increase as a result of the climate crisis.

COP28 also called for the UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action, which was signed by 134 countries, to integrate food into their climate plans by 2025. Food systems are needed to either propel or mitigate climate change, and that is through developing sustainable food systems and agriculture that are also able to adapt to the impacts of climate change. This also involves incorporating the knowledge of Indigenous Peoples and local communities in pioneering innovation in our food supply. Aligned with the declaration is the Call to Action for Transforming Food Systems for People, Nature, and Climate. In this initiative, over 150 entities have pledged corporate commitments to diminish greenhouse gas emissions in food and agriculture, encompassing methane emissions and setting scope 3 targets in accordance with 1.5-degree pathways. Additionally, these commitments involve enhancing support for regenerative agriculture and advocating for nutritious and sustainable diets. Philanthropic commitments are being made to augment financial resources for food systems, while civil society and research organizations are actively contributing to the dissemination of knowledge, implementation, and technical support (Climate Champions, 2023).

The Joint Sharm-El Sheikh Support Programme, a three-year support package, was also established to help unlock financial assistance and provide support to farmers, food producers, small agribusinesses, and local communities (COP28, n.d.).

While countries have been making commitments to more sustainable agriculture, The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and UAE have also pledged a combination of $200 million in aid for smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia to advance their resilience and adaptation to climate change (Reuters, 2023). Microsoft has also approved a nature-based agreement aimed at offsetting 1.5 million tons of carbon dioxide via carbon removal credits through Mombak Gestora de Recursos Ltd, a startup dedicated to reforesting degraded land in the Amazon rainforest (Bloomberg, 2023).

The annual climate conferences serve as a platform for countries to convene and establish targets and solutions to address climate change. Each year, new initiatives and programs are introduced, but there appears to be a lag in development and a tendency for their advancement to be deferred to subsequent conferences. If this is the case, is the COP still effective in addressing the core problem? Yes, climate change is given a significant, global platform to address its consequences, but there needs to be an oversight, such as a monitoring body, to ensure that commitments are fulfilled with concrete timelines. The NDCs are envisioned as action plans to facilitate the attainment of the 1.5°C global temperature target. However, rather than witnessing progress toward this goal, the current state of the planet is moving closer to more devastating scenarios. As stakeholders, we must actively participate in ensuring these commitments become a reality. Accountability is crucial, and collectively, we must remain committed to holding those involved responsible for translating pledges into tangible actions that contribute to positive and sustainable change for a healthier Earth.

Follow GreenEco Investments for more updates on climate change and carbon emissions.